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Newt Gingrich trailing in polls as Romney attack ads take effect
Estimates suggest Romney outspending rival in Florida significantly as Gingrich complains of being 'carpet-bombed'
- guardian.co.uk, Monday 30 January 2012 18.55 GMT
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Newt Gingrich is reeling from being subjected to one of the most expensive and sustained negative ad bombardments in recent US political history ahead of Tuesday's Florida primary.
About 2 million Republicans are expected to participate in the primary to choose a candidate to take on Barack Obama in November.
The exact amount of spending on television and radio ads across Florida is kept secret for commercial reasons – and to avoid giving too much information to rival political camps. But advertising agencies estimate that Mitt Romney and his supporters have spent about $9m in Florida to about Gingrich's $3.8m.
"Gingrich is catching more hand grenades than he is throwing," said Ken Goldstein, president of the main group tracking ad buys, Kantar's Campaign Media Analysis Group.
Goldstein said there had been other relentless advertising campaigns, but he had never seen this level of negativity before. "In a primary, it is extraordinary," he said.
Gingrich, well behind in the polls and heading for defeat in the state, has complained of being "carpet-bombed" by the number of ads bought by Romney. Out on the campaign trail in Florida on Monday morning, Gingrich estimated he was being outspent in advertising by "between four and nine to one, depending on how many weeks you measure" and described many of Romney's ads as "totally dishonest."
Over the last week, according to media advertising insiders, Romney and his supporters have been outspending Gingrich by between three to one and four to one.
Gingrich's campaign manager vowed that Gingrich will fight on in the states beyond Florida. The other two candidates left in the race, former senator Rick Santorum and Texas congressman Ron Paul, have abandoned Florida and are campaigning elsewhere.
A Quinnipiac University poll of likely Republican voters on Monday had Romney at 43%, Gingrich 29%, and Santorum and Paul tied at 11%.
In a series of television appearances on Monday morning, Romney acknowledged that his relentless criticism of Gingrich was paying off in Florida, though he added that his strong debate performance on Thursday night was also helping.
One of Romney's ads concentrates on Gingrich being reprimanded on an ethics violation by both Republicans and Democrats in the House while he was speaker more than a decade ago. It shows a picture of Obama and says: 'If Newt Gingrich wins, this man would be very happy.'
Romney's radio ads also challenge the veracity of Gingrich's repeated claim to have been close to Republican hero Ronald Reagan. Gingrich is trying to counter this by being joined on the campaign trail Monday by Reagan's son, Michael.
The former Massachusetts governor and his supporters have paid for well over 10,000 ads, which means each Republican voter should have seen at least three ads.
Romney's campaign has spent about $4m in advertising in Florida, while his Super Pac, Restore Our Future, has spent an estimated $5m. A supreme court ruling in 2010 removed restraints on campaign spending, paving the way for the emergence of the Super Pac.
Goldstein said: "The Romney Pac is airing more ads than the campaign and spending much more. The combined targeting of Gingrich comprises an overwhelming proportion of the advertising in Florida."
In the 2008 Republican primary in Florida, Romney spent $5.6m to former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani's $3m, and $2.1m for senator John McCain, who won, in spite of spending the least. The significant difference this time, apart from the rise in spending, is that the ads are almost all negative.
Gingrich is supported by a Super Pac of his own, Winning Our Future, which is being backed by the Las Vegas billionaire Sheldon Adelson and his family, which has contributed $10m this month.
The former House speaker is putting out a 63-second ad asking: "What kind of man would mislead, distort and deceive just to win an election?" With a picture on Romney on the screen, the narrator says: "This man would."
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