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US elections 2012
Rick Santorum triumphs in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri – live
Live coverage of the aftermath of Rick Santorum's big win in the latest round of voting in the GOP presidential nomination race
Why is Rick Santorum in Texas? There's no primary in the offing there. Answer – he's on a fundraising trip. He told reporters with him today that he has raised $400,000 in the past two days. That's still a pea in a Romney jar, but still, it's important that he can demonstrate momentum.
Santorum was speaking to a group of pastors in McKinney – and said he was not running to be "pastor-in-chief" of America. I'm glad that's cleared that up.
CNN has announced in the past hour that it has dropped one of its political contributors, Roland Martin, for homophobic tweets during the Super Bowl.
Martin had been tweeting during the game, and in response to a commercial for H&M that featured a scantily clad David Beckham in underwear, he tweeted:
rolandsmartin @rolandsmartin
If a dude at your Super Bowl party is hyped about David Beckham's H&M underwear ad, smack the ish out of him! #superbowl
In the preceeding tweet, he said:
The network said it had considered the reaction – which included a campaign by GLAAD for Martin to be fired – carefully before responding. Here's the CNN statement, made to Eric Wemple of the Washington Post:
Roland Martin's tweets were regrettable and offensive. Language that demeans is inconsistent with the values and culture of our organization, and is not tolerated. We have been giving careful consideration to this matter, and Roland will not be appearing on our air for the time being.
CNN, was actively tweeting throughout the Super Bowl. After an H&M commercial featuring Beckham clad only in his underwear aired, Martin tweeted messages making fun of men who may have liked the ad. He wrote that "real bruhs" would not purchase underwear advertised by Beckham, and that people should "smack the ish out" of a male supporter of the ad.
The Huffington Post's Laura Bassett reports from today's White House briefing over the healthcare law and contraception controversy:
Laura Bassett @LEBassett
WH spox Jay Carney told reporters Obama will work with religious affiliated orgs to implement birth control rule, but he will not back down.
So between "working with" and "will not back down," what does that leave?
Before we all get carried away with the prospect of President Santorum – try saying that out loud – and tied conventions, sensible person Jonathan Bernstein says Mitt Romney remains the front-runner and most likely GOP nominee.
Bernstein points out:
• Bob Dole in 1996 lost four of the first five states
• George Bush in 2000 lost three of the first seven
• John McCain in 2008 lost four of the first six, and five of the first eight
Conclusion? The point isn't to win every state or caucus:
It's about winning the nomination. And for that, it still sure looks like it's going to take some unexpected external shock for anyone but Romney to win it.
That presidential election on 6 November? The campaign has already started:
President Obama's re-election campaign ran more than 5,000 TV ads in six days last month, its first major advertizing blitz of the 2012 cycle, according to a new report by the Wesleyan Media Project.
The on-air offensive, which touted Obama's "unprecedented" record on ethics reform and investments in the green energy economy, targeted 25 media markets in six swing states: Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.
It says that the top three cities that saw the Obama ad most were Charlotte and Raleigh in North Carolina and Green Bay in Wisconsin, where it aired a combined 933 times. The ad also ran more than 200 times in Madison, Wisconsin, Detroit, Cleveland, and Roanoke, Virginia.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos national poll of the Republican candidates finds a remarkably even four-way split in support.
While Mitt Romney leads with 29%, there isn't much in it. Close behind are Ron Paul on 21%, Newt Gingrich on 20% and Rick Santorum on 18%.
That's a good result for Ron Paul, while Romney shows no signs of taking off. The poll was done before Tuesday night's Santomentum.
Underneath the Republican primary hoopla, there is the more serious issue over the Obama administration's healthcare law mandate on the provision of contraception that doesn't allow any exceptions for religious healthcare providers.
Bloomberg reports on the internal battle within the White House:
Vice President Joe Biden and then-White House chief of staff Bill Daley, also Catholics, warned that the mandate would be seen as a government intrusion on religious institutions. Even moderate Catholic voters in battleground states might be alienated, they warned, according to the people familiar with the discussions.
As Biden and Daley appear to have predicted, it has become a big issue on the Republican campaign trail, to the degree that it wouldn't be a surprise if the White House sought to water it down or rescind the decision.
As an example of the fallout, the Dallas Morning News highlights a letter from Bishop Kevin Farrell of the Dallas Catholic Diocese, which reads in part [pdf]:
This action by the administration denies us Catholics our nation's first and most fundamental freedom, that of religious liberty. Unless this rule is overturned, we must be prepared to either violate our consciences, or drop health coverage for our employees (and suffer the penalties for doing so).
Expect to hear more about this from Santorum and Gingrich in the coming weeks – assuming the White House doesn't shift its ground earlier.
Part of the big story today is the weak turnout among GOP voters in every primary and caucus this year other than in South Carolina.
Is it all Mitt Romney's fault? Polling by PPP finds that Republican enthusiasm is falling across the board, while the Democratic supporters are getting more excited as the election draws closer.
Here's some of what PPP found:
• 25% of conservatives are not at all excited to vote this fall, compared to only 16% of liberals
• The percentage of Tea Party voters 'very excited' about voting in November has declined from 73% to 62% since late July
• The single group of voters most enthused about turning this year are African Americans, 72% of whom say they're 'very excited' to cast their ballots
Could a Santorum nomination change those figures for the GOP? That's the interesting question.
The GOP primary circus now moves on to Arizona (via Maine this Saturday) for a debate on 22 February and a vote six days later.
Arizona governor Jan Brewer. Photograph: Ross Franklin/AP Arizona's Republican governor Jan Brewer hasn't endorsed a candidate yet – although she seems thrilled at the prospect, calling the contest "nasty but exciting," making it sound more like a slasher flick:
I think [the primary has] involved a lot more people with all the different debates that have taken place. It's gotten a little nasty but exciting.
No one cares what Donald Trump thinks but he was on CNN this morning for some reason and they asked him what he thought of Rick Santorum. Trump replied:
I don't get Rick Santorum. I don't get that whole thing.
Good news for Santorum, that's what's known as the "reverse Cronkite": if you've lost Trump, you've won middle America.
Our colleagues at Cif America have rounded up a posse of exciting commentators to chew over last night's result, including Matt Lewis:
At least some of Santorum's success on Tuesday can be traced to the serendipitous rise of several "culture wars" issues: the Komen/Planned Parenthood controversy, the Obama administration's decision to force Catholic hospitals to provide health insurance coverage that provides for contraceptives, sterilization and abortifacients, and a court ruling overturning California's ban on same-sex marriage.
Mitt Romney might have been the candidate to defeat Barack Obama on the economy, but with the unemployment rate falling – and the government appearing to overreach on "values" issues – voters may sense that Rick Santorum is better-positioned to draw a sharper contrast with Obama. He may be the right man at the right time.
I think that's right – because what else has changed since Santorum got trounced in Florida?
Meanwhile, Republican candidates and Republicans in general are up in arms over the failure of the Keystone XL pipeline project, which would have piped oil from Canada to the US until it was blocked by the Obama administration.
Canada's prime minister – and dark horse GOP vice presidential pick (joke) – Stephen Harper is in China, unsubtly offering some sweet Canadian crude to make America jealous. And it is working. Take Houston GOP congressman John Culberson for example:
It's outrageous and unacceptable to drive our friends the Canadians into the arms of China. Next to our national debt, the communist Chinese government is the biggest threat to American national security in the 21st century.
It always helps to reduce geopolitical matters to the status of high school dates for the prom.
To get last night into perspective: on Saturday Rick Santorum finished fourth in Nevada with 10% of the vote. Three days later he won Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota. Explain that please. (You may use both sides of the paper.)
The New York Times's Nate Silver mulls the question of the lack of enthusiasm for Mitt Romney and the low GOP turnout so far:
These are not the hallmarks of a race with a dominant candidate. Nor, even, of a race with a candidate like John Kerry, the best of a somewhat weak lot of Democrats in 2004, but one whom the party settled upon fairly quickly.
Instead, this race bears more resemblance to something like the 1984 Democratic contest or the 1976 Republican race. There was a favorite in each of those contests — Walter Mondale in 1984 and Gerald Ford in 1976 — and they were ahead in the delegate count more or less from start to finish.
But both contests progressed through all 50 states and were not that far from going to the convention. A few more missteps for Mr Mondale or Mr Ford, and the outcome might have been different.
Yes the outcome "might have been different" but both were the front runners and favourites, and both edged it in the end. Both Mr Mondale and Mr Ford lost the subsequent general elections, it should be noted.
Welcome to the morning after the night before, which if you're Mitt Romney, is a very bad morning indeed. We'll be covering the hangover for the candidate formerly known as the frontrunner as he picks up the pieces of his campaign.
Number one: Rick Santorum celebrates in Missouri last night. Photograph: Jeff Roberson/AP Here's a summary of the dramatic events of last night by our reporter Ryan Devereaux:
Rick Santorum swept the board with victories in both Minnesota and Colorado's caucuses, as well as a symbolic win in Missouri's "beauty contest" primary. With 95% of Minnesota's caucus votes reported this morning, Santorum emerged as the clear winner with 44.8%. Ron Paul followed with 27.2%. Romney came in third with 16.9% and Gingrich brought up the rear with 10.7%.
In Colorado – a state won easily by Mitt Romney in 2008 – Santorum caused the biggest upset. With all the votes in, Santorum clocked up 40.2%, followed by Romney who received 34.9%. Gingrich came in third with 12.8% and Paul fourth with 11.8%. Santorum's victory in Missouri was symbolic as the primary does not contribute ot the process of awarding delegates , but it drew over 200,000 voters.
Santorum said his win last night was a victory for social conservatism. Speaking to supporters last night, Santorum set his sights higher than his chief rival in a bold speech. "I don't stand here to claim to be the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney. I stand here to be the conservative alternative to Barack Obama," he said.
Mitt Romney's campaign attempted to brush off the devastating results. Aides to the former Massachusetts governor claim he didn't campaign very hard in Missouri and pointing out that John McCain lost a number of states before clinching the 2008 nomination. Still, the defeats are significant. The Romney camp had expected wins Tuesday night and in Minnesota he came in a distant third. Romney's loss in Colorado was the most galling. In 2008, swept to victory with 60% of the vote, handily beating McCain who earned just 19%.
Santorum will face significant challenges in the coming weeks as the race takes on a more national dynamic. He his considerably outmatched when it comes to campaign spending, particularly in comparison to Romney. Santorum's aides expect his Super PAC, Red, White and Blue, will receive a flood of support in light of the wins. It remains to be seen, however, if his momentum can withstand a potential deluge of attack ads from Romney's well-funded supporters.
Voters are already caucusing in Maine, where the process ends on Saturday. After the Maine result is announced, there are 17 days before the next election.
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