Wet weather persists with no end in sight

Warning of localised flooding in Scotland and Cumbria, and Met Office forecasts unsettled weather for most of next 30 days

Spectators take shelter from the rain at a test event at the Olympic Stadium. Photograph: Eddie Keogh/Reuters

The brief return to widespread sunshine is set to end after less than 24 hours with forecasts of heavy rain and potential flooding during the rest of the week.

After the wettest April since 1910, a band of heavy rain is moving slowly north across the UK, with forecasts of up to 60mm (2.4in) in Scotland and Cumbria by Friday.

The pattern heralds a period of further unsettled weather, with no immediate prospect of darling buds or summer's days that often mark mid-May. Brendan Jones, a MeteoGroup forecaster, said: "Unfortunately there is no end in sight for the unsettled weather. Very few places south of Manchester will miss the wet weather today and the downpours will intensify as they move northwards and into Friday.

"There is the possibility of local flooding problems in southern Scotland and areas of northern England such as Cumbria. But most of the country will see substantial rain over the next few days."

The rain may be welcome in drought-affected areas of southern and western England, where hosepipe bans remain in place, in spite of soggy conditions and meteorological excitements such as the Oxfordshire tornado.

Between 20 and 40mm of rain is expected almost everywhere in England before the weekend, adding to the 126.5mm (5in) that fell in April. Last month's rain broke the previous April record set in 2000 by 6mm and came within sight of doubling the long-term average for the month of 69.6mm.

The Met Office forecasts unsettled weather for most of its maximum 30-day advance period, with only the most cautious hope of improvement. It says: "There are some indications that southern and eastern areas will become warmer, drier and sunnier by the end of May. Most evidence suggests that if we do get a more prolonged spell of relatively warm, dry weather, this is more likely to occur during the early part of June."

The cold and wet conditions have dampened summer fashion sales, adding to the economic gloom of the recession. The British Retail Consortium reported that April takings were down 3% on the same period last year and footwear trading was the worst since January 2008.

There was the usual slender silver lining associated with storm clouds: soup, porridge, hot drinks, warm bedding and other precautionary measures for dealing with the British summer have all sold reasonably well. The BRC's director general, Stephen Robertson, said hopes of a revival were pinned on the diamond jubilee, Olympics and Euro 2012 football championships.

Helen Dickinson, head of retail at accountants KPMG, said March's 1.3% rise in retail sales was fading into the past. She said: "Anything other than chilly winds and showers seems a distant memory for consumers and this sums up the mood of many retailers. While May will certainly be brighter than April, the health of the retail sector continues on a downward trajectory."