Climate change: vulnerable countries consider 'occupying' Durban talks

Former president of Costa Rica calls on countries most affected by climate change to refuse to leave talks until progress is made

• John Vidal, environment editor
• guardian.co.uk, Thursday 24 November 2011 13.55 GMT
• Article history


A Filipino activist during a climate change rally near the US embassy in the Philippine capital, Manila, a week before the talks in Durban. Photograph: Aaron Favila/AP

Diplomats from some developing countries may "occupy" the UN climate negotiations that begin on Monday in Durban by staging sit-ins and boycotts over the lack of urgency in the talks.

The move follows a call by the former president of Costa Rica for vulnerable countries to refuse to leave the talks until "substantial" progress has been made.

"I have called on all vulnerable countries to 'occupy' Durban. We need an expression of solidarity by the delegations of those countries that are most affected by climate change, who go from one meeting to the next without getting responses on the issues that need to be dealt with," said José María Figueres.

"We went to Copenhagen [in 2009] with the illusion we could reach an equitable agreement. We went to Cancún [in 2009] where we saw slight but not sufficient progress. Frustration is now deep and building. Now we hear that we will need more conferences. Sometime we have to get serious. We should be going to Durban with the firm conviction that we do not come back until we have made substantial advances."

Spokespeople for developing country negotiating blocs declined to comment on the call for a revolt, but one ambassador said from Durban: "The Occupy Wall Street movement and the Occupy the Climate Change negotiations movement confront the same problem. We need this if we want to have any positive result. Otherwise it will be worse than Cancún."

But he warned: "In the corridors [here] there is talk of occupying the meeting rooms, but there could be sanctions. So it needs to be big inside in order to have impact and nobody is punished. We are at the beginning."

Seyni Nafo, spokesman for the important 53-country Africa group said: "We understand the [financial] situation in Europe and Japan but it seems climate change is now not on the global agenda. Action that might make it visible must be considered. We are exploring a lot of avenues and options. You have to take that seriously."

Frustrations mounted last month when, after months of tense negotiations, developing countries appeared to have succeeded in their demand for access to a multi-billion dollar Green Fund to help them adapt to climate change. But at the last minute the US and Saudi Arabia withdrew their support.

Resentment was further stoked this week when the Guardian revealed that rich countries had decided to shelve plans for a global agreement on climate change within the next few years, instead pushing for an agreement by the end of 2015 or 2016, and not coming into effect until 2020 despite scientists saying that this risked catastrophic climate change.

A possible postponement of a deal was condemned on Tuesday by the UN environment chief, Achim Steiner, who said it would be a "political choice" rather than one based on science.

Jorge Argüello, chair of the powerful G77 and China coalition of 131 countries, said: "[We] trust to see in Durban a fair and equal treatment of all issues that are important to all parties. A serious imbalance in the progress of issues can clearly not be conducive to a successful, comprehensive and balanced outcome."

"The climate change process is too crucial to the survival of humanity and the dignity of each of us, it is sad to see some parties using it just as a toy in a promotional agenda. The African leaders have expressed in different fora that Durban can not become the grave of the Kyoto Protocol, and we are completely supportive of that ambition."

Sheik Hasina, the prime minister of Bangladesh, said: "Climate change caused over 300,000 additional deaths last year. We the vulnerable countries suffer the most for our limited coping capacities. Bangladesh and other vulnerable countries cannot wait for international response to climate causes ... we are implementing 134 climate change adaptation and mitigation action plans."

Radical action at climate talks has produced results in the past. African nations boycotted the climate talks in Barcelona in 2009 for a day, and won themselves a promise from rich countries to make more efforts to deepen 2020 cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.

The Alliance of Small Island States, which represents some of the countries most at risk from global warming, called any moves to delay a new treaty "reckless and irresponsible".

MoD's resistance to human rights in Iraq blamed for death of Baha Mousa

Ex-legal adviser Nicholas Mercer accuses ministry of moral ambivalence and cultural resistance to human rights

• Richard Norton-Taylor
• guardian.co.uk, Thursday 24 November 2011 19.02 GMT
• Article history


Nicholas Mercer has accused the Ministry of Defence of moral ambivalence and a cultural resistance to human rights. Photograph: Martin Argles/Guardian

The army's former chief legal adviser in Iraq has accused the Ministry of Defence of moral ambivalence and a cultural resistance to human rights that allowed British troops to abuse detainees and beat the Basra hotel worker Baha Mousa to death.

Lieutenant Colonel Nicholas Mercer, now an Anglican priest, spoke exclusively to the Guardian in the week he was presented with an award by the civil rights group Liberty, and the appeal court threw the MoD into turmoil over the latest allegations of ill-treatment by troops in Iraq.

Mercer's advice on how British soldiers should treat prisoners was repeatedly ignored. Instead, he was effectively suspended – "sent into the wilderness," as he puts it.

After the abuse of many Iraqi detainees, the deaths of others in the custody of British troops, and millions of pounds spent on compensation to Iraqi families – all of which, he says, could have been avoided – he was vindicated in 2009 by the supreme court, which upheld the advice Mercer had given six years earlier: that British troops occupying a foreign country were bound by the Human Rights Act.

In his interview with the Guardian, Mercer painted a devastating picture of the MoD. Referring to the "sheer arrogance" of senior officials and lawyers, he felt as though he was controlled by "a long screwdriver at the top".

The ministry resisted the demands of the Human Rights Act "at every twist and turn".

By "moral ambivalence", Mercer added, he was pointing to how the MoD allowed the argument to fester over what standards British troops should abide by. "The festering," he said, "ended with a man beaten to death."

In March 2003, six months before Mousa's death, Mercer advised that a judge be sent to Iraq to monitor the handling of prisoners. "My job was to protect soldiers from legal proceedings and the degradation of human beings," Mercer said.

"I don't think the UK government wanted a judge for fear of what he might find. The last thing it wanted was independent judicial oversight."

Yet the presence of a judge could have prevented the deaths and injuries. Asked if Mousa would still have been alive, Mercer replied: "I think it highly likely."

Mercer is not short of epithets to describe MoD officials that he had to deal with – cavalier, high-handed, belittling and patronising are among them.

He was told that his opinion differed from that of the government – and in such cases the government's view had to prevail.

"But I am not a ventriloquist, my job was to protect [British] commanders" and to make sure they kept "to the right side of the law," said Mercer.

Days after the invasion of Iraq in March 2003, Mercer saw some 40 detainees lined up with sandbags on their heads. It was "a bit like seeing pictures of Guantánamo Bay for the first time", he told the Baha Mousa inquiry last year.

He had a "massive row" with the commander of the Queen's Dragoon Guards about the army's legal obligations under the Geneva conventions and the European convention on human rights. Hooding and stress positions had been specifically banned by the British government in 1972.

Mercer walked out of a meeting between British officials and the International Committee of the Red Cross after being told by an MoD ministerial adviser to keep his mouth shut.

Mercer told the inquiry that Martin Hemming, his boss in London and the head of the ministry's legal service, threatened to report him to the Law Society.

In his report published in September, the inquiry chairman, Sir William Gage, a former appeal court judge, singled out Mercer's evidence for praise.

The last straw for Mercer was when he was posted as legal adviser in Britain's sovereign base areas in Cyprus. He was defending a soldier accused of driving over the limit.

The breathalyser was defective and soldiers had not been told about a change in the alcohol limit. The MoD hired a QC from the UK at a cost of £60,000, and the defendant's commander met the judge the night before the trial.

In 2007, the MoD complained about Mercer's handling of the case, and he was suspended – "fatally wounded", as he puts it. Mercer found solace, during what he calls his "long journey", in his theological training.

It was only last year that military intelligence interrogators were trained in UK and human rights law as interpreted by Mercer and now imposed by the courts.

The MoD is learning a "very long hard lesson", Mercer said. That it is still learning is evident from the appeal court's ruling this week that the body which the MoD has set up to investigate new allegations of misconduct by British troops was not sufficiently independent, and was in breach of human rights obligations.

UK net migration hits record high

Office for National Statistics figures show increase despite government targets to bring net migration down below 100,000

• Alan Travis, home affairs editor
• guardian.co.uk, Thursday 24 November 2011 10.02 GMT
• Article history


Theresa May will be dismayed the number of failed asylum seekers being removed from the country has fallen a further 13%. Photograph: Oli Scarff/Getty Images

The government's attempts to reduce net migration to Britain to "tens of thousands" have suffered a fresh blow, with official data showing that the figure reached 252,000 last year, the highest calendar-year total on record.

The Office for National Statistics said the rise in net migration was driven by further falls in the level of emigration, with the number of British people going to live abroad now at its lowest level since 1998.

Immigration remained steady in the 12 months to March 2011, with 591,000 arrivals. A fall in the number of people coming to Britain to work was matched by a rise in the number of overseas students, particularly from China.

Home Office figures also published on Thursday show that the number of people turned away at British ports and airports this summer was 13% down on the same period in 2010, despite the pilot scheme that focused on passport checks for "high-risk" passengers and routes.

In the year to September 2011, a total of 17,399 were stopped, compared with 19,951 the previous year.

The data also shows a growing problem over the removal and deportation of failed asylum seekers and other illegal entrants. Removals and voluntary departures fell by 13%, to 13,253 in July to September this year, compared with 15,261 in the same period in 2010. That was the second lowest quarterly figure for 10 years. The number of foreign national prisoners sent home also continued to decline.

Asylum applications rose this summer, to 4,912, the highest level for two years, with the increase attributed to refugee claims from Pakistan, Iran and Syria.

The only crumb of comfort for Home Office ministers is that in the 12 months to March 2011, net migration dipped to 245,000, compared with the January to December figure of 252,000.

But it was too early to say whether this downward trend would continue, or whether it reflected a seasonal pattern in migration flows to and from Britain. The 245,000 total was 23,000 higher than the previous year.

The immigration minister, Damian Green, preferred to focus on these latest figures, which he said showed a fall in the number of student and work visas compared with a year previously. "They are an early sign that our policies are starting to take effect," he said, adding that the net migration figures were encouraging because they showed a fall "from the recent peak in September 2010".

He said new curbs would help bring net migration down to "tens of thousands over the course of this parliament".

Detailed net figures show that, at 336,000 people, emigration from Britain in the 12 months to March 2011 was at its lowest level since 2001.

The ONS said that 174,000 people left Britain to work abroad in the 12 months to March 2011 – the lowest number for five years, and down from the 203,000 in the 12 months to March 2010.

Australia, France, Spain and the US were the most popular destinations for British citizens going to live abroad, while Poland proved the most frequent destination for non-British citizens returning home.

Taking the 12 months to December 2010, immigration stood at 582,000, similar to 2004 levels. But within this total, ONS data confirmed that studying was the most common reason for migration to Britain; students overtook those coming to work.

The rise in overseas student numbers includes an increase of 15,000, or 54%, in those coming to study from China.

The figures for overseas student numbers in 2011 do show a small fall as the government's new curbs have begun to bite. Issued student visas fell from 271,000 in the year ending June 2011, to 255,000 in the year ending September 2011.

Matt Cavanagh, of the Institute of Public Policy Research, said: "The figures remind us that it was a mistake for the Conservatives to choose 'net immigration' for their overall political target.

"The figures confirm that net immigration in 2010 was the highest on record. Not because immigration is rising – as the ONS makes clear, it has been stable since 2004 – but because emigration is falling.

"The government cannot control emigration, just like it cannot control immigration from the EU, so it ends up trying to clamp down even harder on those areas of immigration it can control. But these are the areas most valuable to our economy, like overseas students and skilled workers from outside the EU."

Labour's immigration spokesman, Chris Bryant, said the fall in the number of illegal entrants – those stopped at British ports this summer – shed light on the home secretary's view that her limited pilot scheme, involving relaxed passport controls, had been a success: "Far from improving the number of detections of people with criminal records or not wanted in this country for other reasons, these figures suggest fewer of those people were stopped," he said.

Sir Andrew Green, of Migrationwatch UK, which campaigns for "zero net migration", said: "At over a quarter of a million in 2010, net migration was the highest it has ever been. It was more than five times the level of 1997 when Labour came to power. It is absolutely vital to get this down to less than 40,000 if we are to keep our population below 70 million."

France, Germany and Italy squash market hopes of ECB intervention

• Merkel rules out expanded role for European Central Bank
• Instead calls for EU treaty changes to advance fiscal union
• Eurozone bond yields soar
• UK borrowing costs lower than those of Germany

• • reddit this
• Comments (78)

• David Gow
• guardian.co.uk, Thursday 24 November 2011 15.44 GMT
• Article history


Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy and Mario Monti in Strasbourg. Photograph: Eric Feferberg/AFP/Getty Images

Leaders of the eurozone's three biggest economies have squashed market hopes for a huge intervention by the European Central Bank to solve the sovereign debt crisis and prevent a renewed recession.

With eurozone bond yields soaring and UK borrowing costs below those of Germany for the first time since 2009, Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, again ruled out any expanded role for the ECB and stamped upon proposals for eurobonds to share sovereign risk. The ECB, she said, was responsible for monetary policy alone.

At a news conference with French president Nicolas Sarkozy and new Italian premier Mario Monti in Strasbourg, Merkel instead pointed to forthcoming plans for EU treaty changes to advance a – distant – fiscal union in the eurozone and, at most, early agreement to boost the bailout fund, the EFSF.

The euro began to drop as soon as Sarkozy clearly kowtowed to Berlin only hours after his foreign minister, Alain Juppé, had called for urgent intervention by the ECB to "play an essential role in restoring confidence".

The French president said proposals for changing the EU treaties would be made "in the forthcoming days" but insisted that the ECB's independence was untouchable – and political leaders would make "neither positive nor negative" demands upon the central bank. Monti took a similar stance.

Merkel said the trio would "do everything to defend the euro" and "we want a strong, stable euro" but repeated her mantra that this required strict actions by governments to abide by the rules of the stability and growth pact setting limits on budget deficits and national debt.

The trio's comments, which poured cold water on any lingering market hopes of early and concerted intervention in the face of the deepening debt crisis, came as European banks run the increasing risk of being sucked into the vortex and of a renewed credit crunch.

Only a day after Germany failed to find buyers for a third of a planned €6bn (£5.15bn) auction of 10-year bunds, Belgian bonds soared to 5.7%, Portugal's credit rating was notched down to junk status and an ECB governing council member said the downturn would be "significantly longer than we expected" – despite a 0.5% rise in German economic output in the third quarter.

German media reports suggested that, privately, the country's political leaders are preparing to cave in on both ECB intervention and eurobonds – when the crisis gets to intolerable or unsustainable levels.

The only concrete decision to emerge from the mini-summit in the Alsatian capital was that the three are to meet again soon in Rome to discuss further Monti's pledge for structural reforms to promote growth and for a balanced Italian budget by 2013.

Pensions action will be a women's strike, says union

Unison says 30 November strike will be dominated by females and undermine Conservative party efforts to reconnect with women voters

Dave Prentis, of Unison, said women make up nearly two-thirds of the workforce affected by the pensions reforms. Photograph: Martin Argles for the Guardian

Next Wednesday's industrial action over pensions reforms will be a "women's strike", according to the leader of the largest public sector union, as a row broke out over government claims that the 30 November walkouts will cost the economy £500m and trigger job losses.

Dave Prentis, general secretary of Unison, said the strikes by up to 2.6 million workers covering public sector jobs ranging from teachers to librarians and immigration officers would be dominated by female participants and worsen the Conservative party's problems with female voters.

In an effort to shift public opinion against the strikes and dissuade workers from taking action, ministers claimed that the economy will lose £500m and an unspecified number of jobs because working parents will be forced into emergency childcare by school closures – an estimate dismissed by one respected thinktank as "economic nonsense".

However, in an interview with the Guardian Prentis said attempts to portray unions as "old-fashioned" monoliths would be exposed as inaccurate.

Unison has 1 million female members and union leaders believe that women make up nearly two-thirds of the workforce affected by the pensions reforms that have triggered Wednesday's day of action.

"This will be a women's strike," said Prentis. "It is women who voted for this. We have a million female members and it is their decision, they wanted to take this action."

Prentis – who also chairs the public sector group at the TUC – said the strike would not conform to critics' allegations of dinosaur-like behaviour. "The rightwing press brand this as an old-fashioned trade union dispute, linking it to strikes in the past. But this is different. People who provide our local government services, our health services, people who care for us, are saying they cannot take it any more and 75% of these workers are women."

Amid reports that internal Tory polling shows women in skilled manual jobs are deserting the party, Prentis said the strikes would poison the coalition's rapport with female voters. "I think the government is beginning to realise that the overwhelming majority of people taking action will be women. They are worried about women moving away from the coalition."

The TUC is reluctant to discuss further action after 30 November, amid doubts that a deal can be reached by the end of December, but the three largest unions – Unite, Unison and the GMB – have talked openly about a long-running campaign of walkouts and protests.

Prentis declined to rule out more strikes if talks fail. "Members did not just vote for action on 30 November. They have voted for action full stop. If our members believe that they want to take further industrial action if an offer from the government is not good enough, then we are in a position to take that action."

Unison balloted 1.1 million members in local government and the health service, including nurses, school dinner ladies, nurses and physiotherapists.

Prentis warned that cover on local government and health services would be kept to a minimum. He said: "People will be inconvenienced. To think that we can take strike action and not inconvenience people, that would not make sense."

With less then a week to go before the biggest walkout in decades, the ministers in charge of pensions negotiations, Francis Maude and Danny Alexander, said the strikes would impose a "significant hit to the economy at a very challenging time" as they urged public sector staff to defy their unions and turn up to work next Wednesday. Alexander, the chief secretary to the Treasury, said he might take his daughter into work due to school closures.

The Treasury said the planned walkout would curb output in the public and private sectors, although the figures do not factor in savings from a swath of the workforce losing a day's pay.

A Treasury spokesman said: "The Treasury has a number of economists and they have calculated this. This is a reasonable worst-case scenario. We don't know what the impact of the strikes will be."

Maude, the minister for the Cabinet Office, said redundancies were likely because there was a correlation between economic output and loss of employment – though he was unable to put a figure on the numbers.

"Exactly what that relationship is is very hard to anticipate but if we lose a big chunk of output it is hard to see how that does not translate into fewer jobs," he said.

According to the government, the biggest impact will be caused by thousands of school closures, forcing parents to work from home, make childcare arrangements or take their children to the office. Jonathan Portes, director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, dismissed Maude's claim as "economic nonsense". "There is no direct reason why a strike next week will translate into job losses," he said. "Clearly, a prolonged period of industrial action which had a medium-term damaging effect on the economy would be different."

Jon Trickett, the shadow cabinet minister, expressed fears Treasury civil servants were being used to feed a Conservative "propaganda machine". He said: "I really do think Francis Maude needs a lesson in mathematics. Everybody knows you have to take the pluses and the minuses to calculate the real cost of something like this. This is a political stunt hiding behind inaccurate mathematics."

Egypt: elections on as protests continue - Thursday 24 November

 

Four down, how many to go? Muamma

The ruling junta have said the elections will start as scheduled on Monday despite the widespread protests and calls for a postponement. Earlier the interior ministry said it could no longer secure the elections but the Supreme Council of Armed Forces [Scaf] said the army would help with the security. It said the elections were the best way to help the country at present and they would go ahead no matter what. The military rulers said they hoped to appoint a new government before the elections.

• The military rulers have again apologised for the deaths of protesters over the past week and pledged that those responsible would be prosecuted. They held a minute of silence for the dead at the end of their press conference. But they also said that they had never fired on any Egyptian civilians.

• Protesters remain in Tahrir Square chanting for field marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi to hand over power. Soldiers have built a wall in Mohammed Mahmoud street, next to Tahrir Square and scene of some of the worst violence, in order to separate protesters and the security forces.

• The US-based Egyptian writer Mona Eltahawy said she was detained for 12 hours at the interior ministry in Cairo during which she was beaten and sexually assaulted by members of the central security forces. Eltahawy said she was freed by military intelligence who also said they would investigate the alleged assault. A spokeswoman for the Egyptian embassy in the UK said she couldn't believe the exaggerations and hoped Eltahawy "wasn't exaggerating". Another US-Egyptian, documentary-maker Jehane Noujaim, remains in custody after being arrested in Tahrir Square on Wednesday.

• Three US students accused of throwing petrol bombs at the security forces in Tahrir Square have been released. Derrik Sweeney, Luke Gates and Gregory Porter, will not face any charges. They have been warned that it might not be safe for them to stay in the country.

Yemen

• At least five people were killed when gunmen including Yemeni security forces opened fire on protesters in the centre of the capital Sanaa. Meanwhile, activists stormed an opposition rally in Change Square to celebrate the departure of president Ali Abdullah Saleh, in protest at the immunity offered to Saleh under the deal for him to stand down.

Syria

• Armoured vehicles stormed a rural area west of Rastan, in Homs province, where many army defectors are known to live, according to the Local Co-ordination Committees of Syria. It claimed 15 people were killed in the operation. The LCC said 26 people have been killed – 27 in Homs provincein total today, including a pregnant lady and a child. 401 people were killed in the first half of November (up to 15 November).

• Arab foreign ministers have given Syria until tomorrow to sign a protocol admitting international observers into the country or face sanctions. The protocol must be signed in Cairo by 1pm on Friday, otherwise the Arab League will vote on sanctions on Saturday. They could include a suspension of commercial flights to Syria and a halt to dealings with its central bank.

• .The head of the renegade Free Syrian Army, has called for foreign air strikes on "strategic strikes".. Colonel Riyadh al-Assad told AFP: "We are not in favor of the entry of foreign troops as was the case in Iraq but we want the international community to give us logistical support." He said targets considered "crucial" should be targeted.

• The European Union says protecting civilians caught up in the crackdown "is increasingly urgent" but it stopped short of endorsing a French call for humanitarian corridors to be established. Spokesman Maja Kocijancic said the EU stands ready to engage with representatives of the Syrian opposition "who adhere to nonviolence and democratic values," according to AP.

Bahrain

• Riot police fired teargas and sound bombs at anti-government protesters at the funeral of a driver who activists claim was killed by police who forced him off the road. After the funeral, youths moved rubbish bins into the middle of roads in anticipation of police 4x4 cars chasing them. Riot police fired teargas and youths threw stones in clashes that lasted some two hours, Reuters reported. An interior ministry statement said police reacted to youths throwing stones and firebombs at them in an illegal protest.

• A leading opposition figure has called for the entire goverment to resign in the wake of a critical report into the government's handling of pro-democracy protests. Khalil Marzooq, deputy chairman of Al-Wefaq, said: "We expected the entire government to tend its resignation immediately after they heard the content of the Commission's report." The Bahraini government has continued to insist that Iran helped instigate the protests despite the commission's finding that it hadn't.

5.57pm GMT / 12.57pm EST: This video, uploaded yesterday, appears to shows members of the Egyptian security forces shooting at head-level on Mohammed Mahmoud street.

It is not clear what ammunition they were using.

5.34pm GMT / 12.34pm EST: Mona Eltahawy has detailed the alleged assault on her by members of the Egyptian security forces in a phone call to CNN.

She said her left arm and right hand are broken but she probably got off with "lighter treatment" because she's a journalist and has dual citizenship (US as well as Egyptian).

5.08pm GMT / 12.08pm EST: The head of the renegade Free Syrian Army, Colonel Riyadh al-Asaad, has called for foreign air strikes on "strategic targets" in Syria, AFP reports (carried by al-Arabiya). He told the news agency:

We are not in favor of the entry of foreign troops as was the case in Iraq but we want the international community to give us logistical support. We also want international protection, the establishment of a no-fly zone, a buffer zone and strikes on certain strategic targets considered as crucial by the regime.

If Syria does not agree by 1pm tomorrow to a protocol allowing observers into the country, the Arab League will vote on sanctions on Saturday. The sanctions could include a suspension of commercial flights to Syria and a halt to dealings with its central bank.

4.59pm GMT / 11.59am EST: Khalid Abdalla, the British-Egyptian actor who was in the Kite Runner, says the Muslim Brotherhood are helping to protect the route to the interior ministry.

A lot of rumours are circulating about the Muslim Brotherhood having struck some kind of deal with the military rulers but no evidence has been forthcoming and the group has denied the claims.

A wall with barbed wire has been built by the army on Mohammed Mahmoud street (see picture), one of the main flashpoints. Another was been built on Sheikh Rehan streetto protect the interior ministry, according to al-Masry al-Youm.

4.44pm GMT / 11.44am EST: My colleague Shiv Malik hasgot reaction from the Egyptian embassy in the UK on the arrest and alleged assault of US journalist Mona Eltahawy.

A spokesperson for the Egyptian embassy in the UK said that Eltahawy was not registered as a journalist in the country and had no foreign press credentials.

The spokesperson added that she hoped Eltahawy "wasn't exaggerating".

I believe this could happen from the people but not from the security [services] at the moment because they have enough criticisms. I don't believe they could do this to her.

4.43pm GMT / 11.43am EST: Some disturbing reports of a woman/women being attacked in Cairo have been circulating.

It is unclear whether they are connected:
AFP's Patrick Baz @Patrick_Baz:

French female #journalist attacked and stripped of her clothes on #Tahrir square, comme un air de deja vu :-( #Egypt

French journo attacked in #Cairo. She was assaulted by dozens #Tahrir #Egypt #horror

He added that she was recovering at the French embassy.

Al Jazeera's @mmbilal

Woman dragged through crowd. Ppl pulling at her clothes. Finally crowd of other men grab her to safety. Pull her over railing. #tahrir

Woman is crying but safe in medical clinic near Hardees. In the background someone is shooting fireworks. And its starting to rain. #tahrir

The crowd of men chasing this woman jumped over the barricade after her but were stopped by others. Mood tense. #tahrir

Sally Zohney @sallyzohney

Another girl just rushed into a restaurant protected by men and she was shaking and crying. What the hell is happening ?

4.28pm GMT / 11.28am EST: Médecins Sans Frontières has urged all parties to respect hospital and health facitilities. Its staff have been visiting the health facilities in Tahrir Square daily. MSF has also been in regular contact with health facilities in Alexandria and Suez.

It describes its efforts as "a drop in the bucket compared to what Egyptian medical services are offering" but adds that it has donated drugs, medical and surgical items to four hospitals in Cairo and also made donations to Suez general hospital.

Mario Stephan, MSF's country representative, said:

We have been made aware of one field hospital that has had to shift locations more than once, owing to tear gas inside the premises, and of one patient requiring protection from other parties while being treated. We would like to reiterate that hospitals and health facilities must be respected by all parties so that medical care can be provided to all patients who need it.

The field hospitals are, for now, over-stocked with medicine, according to the Tahrir Supplies twitter feed, but they they do still need assistance.

4.01pm GMT / 11.01 EST: Morocco's elections on Friday are likely to be hit by low turnout, after a call by activists to boycott the poll, according to Middle East Online.

It is the first election since a new constitution, proposed by King Mohamed VI as regimes in neighbouring countries were being swept away, was overwhelmingly approved in a July 1 referendum.

The amended constitution gives more powers to parliament and the prime minister, who now must be appointed by the king from the party which wins the most seats in the assembly.

Blogger Ibn Kafta explains [in French] why he won't be casting his vote. He dismisses the poll as a sham and says it won't bring the real change Morocco needs.

3.42pm GMT / 10.42am EST: The mother of Derrik Sweeney, one of three American students arrested after being accused of throwing petrol bombs in Tahrir Square, has expressed her delight at the news of his release.

Joy Sweeney said her son, along with Luke Gates and Gregory Porter, was being taken to a local doctor for a medical examination and the three would then go to a police station to have the paperwork processed for their release. The Guardian's Paul Harris writes:

Sweeney expressed her delight that the situation – which could have developed into a thorny diplomatic problem between Egypt and the US – had been resolved. "It is absolutely incredible. We are just so blessed and grateful right now," she said. Sweeney expected that her son Derrik, at least, would now be leaving the strife-torn country as Powers had warned that the students pictures had been displayed all over local news media and it might not be safe to stay. "It wouldn't be really be safe or prudent for him to be in the country," Sweeney said.

3.30pm / 10.30am EST: The prevailing mood on the street is that Egypt is entering a very dangerous period, Martin Chulov reports from Cairo.

Speaking from a suburb of the city he said:

People are now thinking that if we do press ahead with these elections it may lead to us to even greater instability. On the eve of these elections almost no systems have been put in place - nothing has been done to prepare the groundwork for what is a very important event.

If these elections were seen to fail, that could play into the hands of people who say Egypt is not ready to transition from martial law to plural democracy. People are very nervous. The interior minister said he can't guarantee that the streets will be safeguarded on Monday.

Election timetable now seems locked-in despite massive protests predicted on Friday, Martin Chulov reports from Cairo #Egypt (mp3)

Holding the elections on Monday appears to be "locked-in" Martin said.

Once the announcement was made people are now accepting that they [the elections] will go ahead, unless there is some last minute delay. People are not pushing for that, they are bracing themselves for Monday.

[The Muslim Brotherhood] are the group with the most to gain [from earlier elections]. They are saying after eight months of torpor it is time to move in with the democratic process. They're followers are likely to do very well.

On Amr Moussa's reported appointment as prime minister, Martin said: "Amr Moussa doesn't play on the streets. He is seen as someone who gave cover to the Mubarak regime for a long time."

Looking ahead to Friday's protests, Martin said:

There are competing marches planned. Both are due to head to Tahrir Square. It probably will be a flashpoint once again. Pro-Tantawi people [supporters of Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, head of Scaf] are gathering in the suburbs. And there are large numbers of anti-military council people who will gather in Tahrir Square. I'm anticipating that tomorrow the numbers inside the square will match those sweeping scenes that we saw way back in January. The street is combustible it is difficult to see that it will proceed calmly and easily tomorrow.

Martin said Tantawi had significant backing among some elements. "A lot of people still do think that a strongman is best place to rule this unstable society," Martin said.

3.15pm GMT / 10.15am EST: Syria has been given until tomorrow (Friday) to sign a protocol allowing in observers. It has been invited to sign the protocol in Cairo. If it does not sign, it could face sanctions.

Syria has indicated that it is ready to sign, according to a BBC Arabic journalist.

Meanwhile, the Local Co-ordination Committees (LCC) have released a report on "Regime Violations" for the first half of November. Between 1 and 15 November, 401 people were killed according to the LCC.

The numbers, which cannot be independently verified by the Guardian, are broken down by the LCC as follows:

27 children: 21 boys and six girls.

17 were killed under torture.

Homs: 193
Hama: 47
Idlib: 51
Damascus and its suburbs: 34
Daraa: 52
Aleppo: 5
Hasakeh: 4
Raqqa: 2
Tartous: 3
Deir Ezzor: 7
Lattakia: 3

The LCC says that 11 civilians have been killed today, five in the city of Homs, three in Rastan, two in Hawleh and one in Talkalakh. The tally evidently does not include the army deserters killed in Rastan (see 11.30am GMT / 6.30 EST)

2.33pm GMT / 9.33am EST: Writer Mona Elthawy has been released but another Egyptian-American remains in custody. Documentary-maker Jehane Noujaim was arrested in Tahrir Square on Wednesday.

Control Room, Noujaim's 2004 documentary, which looked at al-Jazeera's coverage of the second Iraq War, raising questions about the narrative in the US media, won several awards.

Anthony Mills, press freedom manager at the International Press Institute, said:

We welcome the release of Mona Eltahaway and urge the authorities to release Jehane Noujaim and any other journalists who may have been detained during the clashes.

We call for a full and impartial investigation into Eltahaway's claims of sexual assault and again, we urge the authorities to ensure the safety of journalists reporting on the continuing unrest.

2.09pm GMT / 9.09am EST Amr Moussa, a presidential candidate and the former head of the Arab League has been asked to lead the new cabinet as prime minister, according to al-Jazeera's Adam Makary.

Scaf has just four days to appoint the government if it is to fulfil its hope of having a new administration in place before the start of elections.

It is not clear whether Moussa will accept.

The Guardian profiled him earlier this year:

"Moussa combines several assets," says an Arab diplomat who knows him well. "He has the experience, a very solid international address book and bags of charisma. He also has the common touch, much more than someone like Mohamed ElBaradei, who is typically upper middle class."

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said that he has been criticised "for his proximity to the former regime", despite joining the protests against Hosni Mubarak.

Steven Cook, from the Council on Foreign Relations, suggested that both ElBaradei and Moussa were being lined up for the role "but both are understandably wary [of accepting]".

1.53pm GMT / 8.53am EST: So much for turning a new page in Bahrain .... Riot police used teargas and sound bombs to break up that protest in A'ali at the funeral of man activist said was killed by police.

Matthew Cassel uploaded this picture of mourners after teargass had been fired.

NPR's Kelly McEvers, who was also at the event, tweeted:

Okay I'm starting to get used to being gassed. #Bahrain

Kristian Ulrichsen, Middle East research fellow at LSE, tweeted:

Security crackdown w tear gas, sound bombs, riot police terrorising mourners. Welcome to King Hamad's "new starting point" for #Bahraini

On Wednesday King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa said a commission inquiry into human rights abuses during the government's crackdown against protests would be "catalyst for change" and "turn a new page in history."

1.44pm GMT / 8.44am EST: Abdul Mawgoud Dardery, a prominent member of the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom of Justice party, said Egypt's military rulers are right to push ahead with the elections on Monday.

Speaking to al-Jazeera he said it would be wrong to delay the vote until after a new civilian government had been appointed.

"That would be a very undemocratic move and the Egyptian people will not allow it," he told the network. "The problem is what will the process be to choose the civilian council?" he asked.

Dardery, who is standing for election in Luxor, pointed out that 80% of the population backed a timetable that stipulating that elections should be held before a consitution was formed.

He claimed the people of Luxor wanted security, stability and elections as soon as possible. He also denied that the Freedom and Justice party want an early poll before other parties had a chance to get organised.

American students Greg Porter, Luke Gates and Derrik Sweeney as show on state TV. Photograph: Egyptian state TV/AP

1.10pm GMT / 8.10am EST: Three US students accused ot throwing petrol bombs at the security forces in Tahrir Square, have been released, according to AP.

BREAKING: Official says Egyptian court has ordered release of 3 US students arrested during Cairo unrest. -BW

"Thanksgiving pardon?" suggests CNN's Ben Wedeman

Derrik Sweeney, Greg Porter, and Luke Gates were arrested on Monday.

12.51pm GMT / 7.51am EST: Here's a summary of the main developments so far today:

Egypt

• The ruling junta have said the elections will start as scheduled on Monday despite the widespread protests and calls for a postponement. Earlier the interior ministry said it could no longer secure the elections but the Supreme Council of Armed Forces [Scaf] said the army would help with the security. It said the elections were the best way to help the country at present and they would go ahead no matter what. The military rulers said they hoped to appoint a new government before the elections.

• The military rulers have again apologised for the deaths of protesters over the past week and pledged that those responsible would be prosecuted. They held a minute of silence for the dead at the end of their press conference. But they also said that they had never fired on any Egyptian civilians.

• The US-based Egyptian writer Mona Eltahawy said she was detained for 12 hours at the interior ministry in Cairo during which she was beaten and sexually assaulted by members of the central security forces. Eltahawy said she was freed by military intelligence who also said they would investigate the alleged assault.

Yemen

• At least five people were killed when gunmen including Yemeni security forces opened fire on protesters in the centre of the capital Sanaa. Meanwhile, activists stormed an opposition rally in Change Square to celebrate the departure of president Ali Abdullah Saleh, in protest at the immunity offered to Saleh under the deal for him to stand down.

Syria

• Armoured vehicles stormed a rural area west of Rastan where many army defectors are known to live, according to the Local Co-ordination Committees of Syria. It claimed 15 people were killed in the operation.

• Arab foreign ministers gathered in Cairo on Thursday to discuss imposing sanctions on Syria for failing to implement an Arab League plan to end a crackdown on protests. "Syria has not offered anything to move the situation forward," a senior Arab diplomat at the League told Reuters.

• The European Union says protecting civilians caught up in the crackdown "is increasingly urgent" but it stopped short of endorsing a French call for humanitarian corridors to be established. Spokesman Maja Kocijancic said the EU stands ready to engage with representatives of the Syrian opposition "who adhere to nonviolence and democratic values," according to AP.

Bahrain

• Anti-government protests have taken place at the funeral of a driver who activist claim was killed by police who forced him off the road. Activists claim protesters chanted for King Hamad to leave power.

• A leading opposition figure has called for the entire goverment to resign in the wake of a critical report into the government's handling of pro-democracy protests. Khalil Marzooq, deputy chairman of Al-Wefaq, said: "We expected the entire government to tend its resignation immediately after they heard the content of the Commission's report." The Bahraini government has continued to insist that Iran helped instigate the protests despite the commission's finding that it hadn't.

12.44pm GMT / 7.44am EST: Egypt's military rulers have issued a new communique, number 85, which can be viewed on their Facebook page.

Daily News Egypt video journalist Farrah Saafan tweets that it effectively calls on people to arrest their fellow citizens if they are threatening the security of the interior ministry:

SCAF 85th Msg: We ask honorable citizens & youth revolutionaries 2 be alert & observe any1 in gatherings/arrest any1 u suspect w/out hurting

SCAF 85th Msg: Arrest anyone who would be on top of bldgs surrounding protest area incase they attack protesters and security.

12.20pm GMT / 7.20am EST: The Scaf press conference has finally ended but not before some clumsy attempts by the military rulers to show their solidarity with the people, Jack Shenker tweets:

#SCAF presser: And it's over, but not before a badly-observed 'moment of silence' for martyrs. Truly unbelievable. #Tahrir

#SCAF presser: Oh, but just when you thought the irony was over - free copies of 'Jan 25th: A People's Revolution' being handed out by exit

#SCAF presser: Some journos went up to generals afterwards to get their autographs. Seriously.

12.07pm GMT / 7.07am EST: Bahrain continues to insists that Iran was involved in pro-democracy protests despite the report of an independent inquiry that concluded it wasn't.

The Kingdom has had to resort to "classified evidence" that couldn't be shared with the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry, to maintain this line.

An AP report carried by Lebanon's Daily Star:

Bahrain suggested Thursday that it has classified evidence that Iran was linked to Shia-led protests in the Gulf kingdom despite an independent commission that said it found nothing to back the claims.

The allegations of Iranian involvement in the kingdom's 10-month-old unrest have been central to Gulf policies during the region's largest Arab Spring uprising, including the decision to send a Saudi-led military force to reinforce Bahrain's embattled Sunni monarchy.

But the findings of a special commission that investigated Bahrain's turmoil - contained in a 500-page report issued Wednesday - were a direct slap at fears by the Western-allied Gulf states that Shia power Iran seeks to use Bahrain as a foothold to try to undermine the region's Sunni Arab regimes.

The official Bahrain News Agency said national security concerns prevented sharing all intelligence on Iran, which has sharply denounced the crackdowns on Bahrain's Shiite majority but insists it has no direct ties to the conflict.

Meanwhile, activists claim roads were blocked to prevent mourners from attending the funeral of a driver who was killed when police ran him off the road.

Journalists were also prevented from attending the event in A'ali, according to NPR's Kelly McEvers.

Despite the reported restrictions hundreds of people attended the funeral as it became the focus for an anti government demonstration, according to pictures from journalist Matthew Cassel who did manage to attend.

He tweets:

Immediately chants begin against govt. Seems more politicised funeral than normal. #Bahrain

11.52am GMT / 6.52am EST: Still, the Scaf press conference continues. Jack Shenker is still tweeting from it.

Here are some more of his updates:

#SCAF presser: Q: 'When will referendum on mil rule be conducted?' A: 'We had constn referendum in March, majority supported our roadmap'

#SCAF presser: Interior minister need said he couldn't secure elections, anyway army will help with security. Vote will be successful.

SCAF presser: More time spent discussing electoral lists than dead bodies in #Tahrir. They're picking journos carefully for questions.

#SCAF presser: Good Q 'Why aren't you stopping CSF violence?'. Bad A 'Police aren't attacking anyone, just defending MOI'

#SCAF presser: #Egypt journo starts question with thanks & expression of respect to army, asks about treachery of those provoking trouble

11.45am GMT / 6.45am EST: Blogger Zeinobia has featured a video on her blog, said to be filmed last night in Alexandria, in which a young man, wearing plain clothes, walks among police officers, behind police lines, carrying a tray of what seem clearly to be petrol bombs (about 52 seconds in).

Zeinobia describes it as "thugs at the police side with Motolov cocktails".

11.36am GMT / 6.36am EST: The resignation of Yemen's president Ali Abdullah Saleh changes little, writes the Guardian's Middle East expert Brian Whitaker.

Even without Saleh, Yemen still has a parliament in which Saleh's party, the General People's Congress, holds an overwhelming majority. It is a parliament with no real mandate and very little legitimacy, yet it is also the body charged by the constitution with the task of approving candidates for presidential elections.

Saleh may be on the way out but his regime – and everything it stands for – is still very much in place.
That is basically what the Gulf Co-operation Council states were hoping for with their so-called transition plan: change at the top while preserving the status quo beneath.

There are parallels here with Egypt where the fall of Mubarak left key parts of his regime intact, as the protesters there are now discovering. For Yemenis who want real change, the struggle is far from over.

11.30am GMT 6.30am EST: The Syrian army has launched an offensive against army deserters in Rastan, as European and Arab ministers discuss stepping up pressure against the Assad regime in separate meetings.

Here's a round up the latest developments on Syria.

• Armoured vehicles stormed a rural area west of Rastan where many army defectors are known to live, according to the Local Co-ordination Committees of Syria. It claimed 15 people were killed in the operation.

Reuters reported eyewitnesses in the area.

Activists said around 50 tanks and armoured vehicles fired anti-aircraft guns and machineguns into farmland on the edge of Rastan, 20 km (12 miles) north of the restive city of Homs.

The town was scene at the end of October of the first major fighting between troops loyal to President Bashar al-Assad and army defectors in the eight-month uprising against his rule.

"The shelling is concentrating on Rastan's western farms. I have called several people who live there and loyalist officers answered their mobile phones instead. They were either killed or arrested," said a resident of the town, who gave his name as Abu Salah.

• Arab foreign ministers gathered in Cairo on Thursday to discuss imposing sanctions on Syria for failing to implement an Arab League plan to end a crackdown on protests. "Syria has not offered anything to move the situation forward," a senior Arab diplomat at the League told Reuters.

• The European Union says protecting civilians caught up in the crackdown "is increasingly urgent" but it stopped short of endorsing a French call for humanitarian corridors to be established. Spokesman Maja Kocijancic said the EU stands ready to engage with representatives of the Syrian opposition "who adhere to nonviolence and democratic values," according to AP.

11.23am GMT / 5.23am EST: The writer Mona Eltahwy, who has being released after being detained for 12 hours at the interior ministry, has claimed, in a series of tweets, that she was beaten and sexually assaulted by the central security forces (CSF).

5 or 6 surrounded me, groped and prodded my breasts, grabbed my genital area and I lost count how many hands tried to get into my trousers.

.@Sarahngb is coming to kindly take me to the hospital. Besides beating me, the dogs of CSF subjected me to the worst sexual assault ever

Another hour later I was free with apology from military intelligence for what CSF did. Took pics of my bruises and recorded statement 1/2

Eltahwy also said she was blindfolded for two hours and posted a picture of her swollen hand. She indicated that she intends to write about her ordeal.

Another Egyptian, Mohamed Aboelkhier, has posted before and after pictures of his friend, Maged Butter, who he says was detained for 11 hours. The picture after he was released shows a deep gash on his forehead and other marks to his face.

11.05am GMT / 6.05 EST: As the elections are back on in Egypt we all need to get our heads around how the complex process is going to work.

It's tricky stuff, as Michael Collins Dunn of Washington's Middle East Institute warns:

I have a Ph.D. and know Arabic and first went to Egypt nearly 40 years ago and I can't figure it out. The utterly corrupt and fraudulent old electoral system was easier to understand, though also befuddling, but at least you knew what the final step was: "Step 67: Government makes up its desired results. Publishes them." Now, nobody understands it.

Jack Shenker has prepared a Q&A on the election that is also available in Arabic.

And there's an interactive map of the parties.

Also useful is guide highlighted by the Arabist on where the key parties and players stand on five key issues.

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace also has a guide to transition, which includes profiles of the different political parties.

11.00am GMT / 6.00am EST: Scaf have said at the press conference that no activist has ever been arrested for their opinions.

Just one case that would seen to contradict that statement is that of Egyptian blogger Maikel Nabil, who was jailed by a military court in April for criticising the army's role during anti-government protests.

Nabil began a hunger strike on August 23 and fears have been voiced that he could die in his jail as his appeal has been adjourned a number of times.

10.51am GMT / 5.51am EST: Some tweets from the Scaf press conference, where they have confirmed elections will go ahead, from Jack Shenker:

#SCAF presser: Elections now as planned is best way to help the country in these troubled times

#SCAF presser: Confirmation - no delay to elections, vote begins in four days #Tahrir

#SCAF presser: Hope to appoint new government before elections

The existing Egyptian government tended its resignation on Monday, on the third day of violence in Cairo.

10.43am GMT / 5.43am EST: The panic is over on the fate of the writer Mona Eltahawy (left). Earlier this morning she tweeted that she had been beaten and arrested at ministry of the interior.

Within the past few minutes she gave this update:

I AM FREE

10.38am GMT / 5.38am EST: El-Mola also says that detainees will be released and those responsible for violence will be held "accountable".

There is corruption that went on for years and it is impossible within a few months ...to put an end to corruption.

Any violations [of human rights] will be tackled.

He says the army is there to protect the Egyptian people and maintain stability.

El-Mola seemed to say that elections would go ahead as scheduled and the presidential election would take place by June 2012.

Major general Mamdouh Shahin is speaking now. The livestream has stopped but the Guardian's Jack Shenker is tweeting from the Scaf press conference.

10.27am GMT / 5.27am EST: The Scaf press conference has begun.

Chief of staff Mokhtar el-Mola is speaking. He says the military never intended to replace the legislature.

He also repeats Tantawi's claim that the army has never used bullets on the Egyptian people.

Tensions is increasing for some unjustified reasons ...we are not biased, we are not supporting any party.

Scaf "is not looking for power". The interests of the nation are the most important and the army is "ready to go back into the barracks".

Most important is to stop violence against the demonstrators ...the right of protest is for everyone unless there is disturbance.

10.17am GMT / 5.17am EST: Six Egyptians who helped chart the revolution online will take part in an online discussion on what happens next. Our correspondent Jack Shenker will join them at 2pm GMT to discuss the country's political future as the date for the elections hangs in the balance. Post your responses to what they've written and leave questions for Jack in the comments thread here.

10.08am GMT / 5.08am EST As Jack mentioned Egypt's military rulers have again apoligised for deaths in Tahrir Square.

The apology and a pledge to prosecute those responsible came in Scaf's latest directive, posted on its Facebook page.

AP adds this:

Police and protesters also agreed to a truce negotiated by Muslim clerics after five days of fierce street battles that have left nearly 40 dead.

But the military's apology left many of the protesters unmoved.

"What we want to hear is when they're leaving," said Khaled Mahmoud, a protester who had a bandage on his nose after being hit by a tear gas canister.

The streets where the battles took place were almost entirely covered by debris, soot, abandoned shoes and scores of the surgical masks used by the protesters to fend off the police's tear gas.

"The army is like the police: A tool of suppression," said Mayada Khalaf, a female protester. "Where was the army when the shooting was going on?"

10.02am GMT / 5.02am EST: At least five people were killed when gunmen including Yemeni security forces opened fire on protesters in the centre of the capital Sanaa on Thursday, witnesses and a hospital official told Reuters.

Witnesses said the gunmen shot at protesters on the capital's Zubayr street. At least four bodies brought from the scene of the shooting were visible at a nearby hospital, where an official said the death toll so far was five.

Journalist Adam Baron tweets from the scene:

at least 5 dead in #sanaa after plain clothes pro-govt gunmen fired on protest march. #yemen

4 bodies in field hospital, all of the dead looked quite young. #sanaa #yemen

"isnt this what you expected? its what we expected"--activist, #sanaa #yemen

9.43am GMT / 4.43am EST: The ground is generally shifting this morning in the protesters' favour, Jack Shenker reports from Cairo.

The interior minister has said he can no longer secure elections and Scaf's latest communique has an aplogetic tone.

There's been a significant shift in tone from last night. One possible explanation is that they are preparing for Friday when we could see the biggest turnout yet in Tahrir Square. Another is that violent crackdown is clearly not shifting the demonstrators and can't be sustainable in the long-term.

The Guardian's Martin Chulov, who is also in Cairo, tweets:

#Scaf announcement on #Egypt elections due midday. Postponement v likely. So too more chaos. #Tahrir

Saw piles of election monitor vests inside #Cairo police station. Police say won't be used. Poll delay expected today #Tahrir #Egypt

There are also reports that Egypt's political parties have asked Scaf for two week postponement of the elections.

9.19am GMT / 4.19am EST: Activists in the Yemeni capital Sana'a have stormed an opposition rally held to celebrate the departure of president Ali Abdullah Saleh, Tom Finn reports from Change Square.

They were venting their anger at the immunity deal given to Saleh, Tom reports above the noise of the protest.

Around 50 or 60 young men have seized the stage from the Islah party [which signed the deal]. A group of young men start pelting the stage with eggs and rocks and bottles. This is fairly significant. It has been the Islah party who have been running the stage and the security committee in Change Square. But clearly the price that they have paid by signing this deal is that there is now a gulf between the independent youth and the party ...

The fear now is that we are going to see the fragmenting of the anti-Saleh oppoisition.

"The revolution will continue" angry youth chant in #Yemen"s Change Sq after storming Saleh resignation celebrations @TomFinn2 reports (mp3)

"The revolution will continue," one man chanted, Tom reports as scuffles broke out.

8.41am GMT / 3.41am EST: Welcome to Middle East Live on what looks set to be another hectic day.

The Arab uprisings have claimed their fourth scalp after Yemen's Ali Abdullah Saleh finally agreed to sign a deal to transfer power. In Bahrain the authorities are digesting an official report accusing them of using excessive force and torture to crackdown on protests. But the main focus remains on Egypt where the continuing protests have cast doubt on whether elections scheduled for Monday will go ahead.

Here's a round-up of the latest developments:

Egypt

• Will the first round of parliamentary elections have to be postponed? It is looking that way after the interior ministry said it could no longer guarantee security at the poll. An announcement by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces is expected soon.

• Fears are growing for the Egyptian blogger and writer Mona Eltahawy after she tweeted:

Beaten arrested in interior ministry

• Egyptian protesters want the elections to be postponed and a council of elders to replace the military rulers who continue to send in security forces to quell demonstrating crowds. "The people demand the end of the field marshal," said one large banner.

• The Muslim Brotherhood has misread the revolutionary mood, writes novelist Ahdaf Souief.

The leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood has declared against the protests. This has been a very bad move. They're perceived to have sided with Scaf against the people. They've caused a split within their own ranks: some members of the Brotherhood have disobeyed orders and obeyed their consciences and joined the protests. But the Brotherhood can no longer claim that the numbers in the streets are due to the Islamists – the numbers we've been seeing in the streets of Egypt since Saturday night are mostly without the Brotherhood.

• The Brotherhood is torn between preserving its credibility with protesters and securing the political advantages of cooperating with the ruling military council, according to the New York Times.

Many Egyptians rolled their eyes at what they described as the combination of political ambition and the Brotherhood's tactic of accommodation that they said had historically been employed by the group.

• Egyptian security forces are believed to be using a powerful incapacitating gas against civilian protesters in Tahrir Square following multiple cases of unconsciousness and epileptic-like convulsions among those exposed.

The Guardian has collected video footage as well as witness accounts from doctors and victims who have offered strong evidence that at least two other crowd control gases have been used on demonstrators in addition to CS gas.

• Who will replace Essam Sharaf as prime minister? asks Steven Cook from the Council on Foreign Relations.

It seems that Mohamed ElBaradei and Amr Moussa are in talks with the Scaf about heading the next government, but both are understandably wary. ElBaradei and Moussa have presidential aspirations and will want to avoid the same fate as Sharaf, who was hammered between the military and public opinion and as a result, spectacularly ineffective. Word is that ElBaradei and Moussa may be negotiating terms that will give them autonomy and a measure of legitimacy that will protect them and keep their hopes for the presidency alive.

Harry Potter author JK Rowling has spoken at the Leveson inquiry of her horror at discovering a letter from a journalist inside her five-year-old daughter's schoolbag.

In a two-hour appearance before Lord Justice Leveson at the high court on Thursday, Rowling told of how she frequently felt "under siege" from photographers and gave a string of examples of alleged press intrusion.

Rowling said the most "outrageous" intrusions were when journalists targeted her children at school. "In the first burst of publicity surrounding [Harry Potter] … I unzipped her schoolbag in the evening; among the debris I found an envelope addressed to me from a journalist," Rowling added.

"It's my recollection that the letter said that he intended to ask a mother at the school to put this in my daughter's bag … I don't know how this got in my daughter's schoolbag.

"I can only say that I felt such a sense of invasion that my daughter's bag … it's very difficult to say how angry I felt that my five-year-old daughter's school was no longer a place of complete security from journalists."

Later Rowling recalled how a journalist from the Scottish Sun had contacted the headmaster of her daughter's school, claiming that there had been complaints about her daughter from other pupils and parents.

"My daughter was being accused of some kind of bullying," she said. "There was not one word of truth in it … To approach my daughter's school was outrageous."

Rowling told the inquiry how she had routinely felt "under seige" and "held hostage" by paparazzi photographers outside her house.

The author said that she had once hid her children with blankets inside their own home to protect them from the photographers outside.

"There's a twist in the stomach as you wonder what do they want, what have they got? It feels incredibly threatening to have people watching you," she said.

Following the birth of her son, Rowling said she was unable to leave the house for a week without being photographed and added that she once gave chase to a member of the paparazzi while with her children.

"The cumulative effect becomes quite draining," she said. "On a general note, the sense of being often unable to leave your house or move freely is obviously prejudicial to a normal family life."

Rowling also told how she was unsucessfully targeted by a journalist who claimed to be a Post Office employee in order to "blag" personal details about her. A journalist purporting to be a tax worker later sucessfully blagged personal details from her husband, she claimed.

"If you lock horns with certain sections of the British press you can expect retribution pretty quickly," she said, claiming that the attitude on tabloid newspapers was "utterly cavalier, indifference, what does it matter? You're famous; you're asking for it."

Earlier at the inquiry, the former Formula One boss Max Mosley told the inquiry how it felt like News International had been out to "destroy" him after he took the News of the World to court for breach of privacy.

• To contact the MediaGuardian news desk email editor@mediaguardian.co.uk or phone 020 3353 3857. For all other inquiries please call the main Guardian switchboard on 020 3353 2000. If you are writing a comment for publication, please mark clearly "for publication".

• To get the latest media news to your desktop or mobile, follow MediaGuardian on Twitter and Facebook